I 2021 fortsatte COVID-19-epidemien med at sprede sig over hele verden, mens USA fortsatte med at implementere pengepolitiske lempelser. Efter Biden tiltrådte, foreslog han udgiftsplaner, herunder 1,9 billioner økonomisk redningsaktion og 1,2 billioner infrastrukturbyggeri. Overudstedelsen af penge var uundgåelig, hvilket drev råvarepriserne op, inklusive uædle metaller. Blandt dem steg tinpriserne i forkant.
I 2021 viste prisen på tin på det internationale marked en tendens til ensidig stigning, og den årlige officielle LME-tinspot-notering steg med 86 procent. Den laveste pris var 20.710 / ton, og den højeste pris var 39.875 / ton. Gennemsnitsprisen var 31.141/ton, med en stigning på 82 procent-til-år. LME-lagrene steg 8,6 procent fra 1,860 tons til 2.020 tons.
I 2021 kan LME-tinpristendensen groft opdeles i to stigningsrunder, fra begyndelsen af året til slutningen af september steg prisen fra 20.970 USD/ton til 35.800 USD/ton relativt høj på året, i begyndelsen af oktober, en lille korrektion til 33400 USD/ton lav, hvorefter den anden bølge af stigende igen nåede 39875 USD/ton i slutningen af november. Siden løber chokket til slutningen af året.
I lighed med LME-tinpristendensen i 2021 var Shanghai-markedets tinspotpris også ud af en bølge af stigende marked. Shanghai-markedets tinspot-indeks steg 95 procent for året. Den laveste er 152.838 yuan/ton, den højeste er 300063 yuan/ton, gennemsnittet er 227.049 yuan/ton, en stigning på 87 procent år-til-år. Lagrene i den foregående periode faldt kraftigt fra 5.574 tons til 1.260 tons, et fald på 77 procent.
Customs statistics show that from January to November 2021, China's tin concentrate import volume totaled 164,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25 percent ; Refined tin imports of 4,588 tons, down 71.8 percent year on year; Refined tin exports totaled 14,000 tons, up 239 percent year on year; Net exports of refined tin totaled more than 9,000 tons. China's refined tin production totaled 214,200 tons in 2021, up 11.07 percent year on year, according to the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association.
Ifølge data offentliggjort af World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) var den globale rapporterede produktion af raffineret tin i 2021 380.100 mt, og efterspørgslen var 378.800 mt, et lille overskud.
The World Bank's latest Global Economic Outlook, released in January, noted that, following a strong rebound in 2021, global economic growth is entering a period of marked slowdown due to new threats posed by novel Coronavirus variants, combined with rising inflation, debt and income inequality. Global growth is expected to slow markedly from 5.5 per cent in 2021 to 4.1 per cent in 2022, with some negative impact on base metals markets, as the release of pent-up demand in the previous phase is completed and fiscal and monetary support policies are withdrawn. As for the tin market, from the supply side, Indonesian President Joko Widodo, as the world's largest refined tin exporter, has talked about tin export twice recently. In November, he told an annual meeting of the central bank that Indonesia could halt tin exports by 2024 to attract investment in the resource processing industry. In January, he said at the 2022 G20 Business Meeting in Indonesia that he would ensure that Indonesia could meet the world's demand for tin, nickel and bauxite, not in the form of raw materials, but in the form of finished or semi-finished products with high added value. I think that the outside world may question the strength of Indonesia's policy implementation because of past experience, but at present, this is very likely to happen. On the one hand, Indonesia's aggressive development of nickel downstream production since 2015 has seen results, not only creating a lot of jobs, but also having a positive impact on its exports and trade balance. The Indonesian government is expected to apply the success of nickel to other mining products. On the other hand, when Joko's second term as president expires in 2024, he is expected to follow the development model of the nickel industry and roll out industrial policies on all mining products, including tin, in which Indonesia is dominant, before the end of his term, thus becoming a highlight of his achievements. Based on the above two factors, if conditions are mature, the Indonesian government can fully advance the implementation date of the suspension of tin export, so there will be great uncertainty in the global tin supply in the next 2-3 years. From the consumption side, according to the international Tin Industry Association estimates, in 2022, the photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 16,000 to 19,000 tons of tin, and last year, the photovoltaic industry with about 14,000 tons of tin, considerable growth. Thus, this year tin market overall consumption will continue to maintain growth.
Prismæssigt forventes lunxi at operere i intervallet 40,000 48,000 USD/ton i år, og Huxi vil justere og chokere i området 300.000 350.000 RMB/ton.
